The 5 Best and Worst Value Players at their ADP - 2024 Fantasy Football

For 11 out of every 12 fantasy managers, this is the best part of their fantasy football season. Scouring rankings, unearthing sleepers, and predicting this year's busts—it’s all part of the thrill of the draft season.

After diving deep into my top 200 player rankings for 2024 and comparing them to the public's consensus (using Sleeper PPR ADP as a reference), I've found some players who I believe are absolute steals and others who might be more trouble than they're worth.

In this article, I'll highlight five players I absolutely love at their current ADP and five players I think are overvalued and should be avoided. Let's jump into the players who could make or break your fantasy season!

5 Fantasy Football Players I LOVE at their Current ADP for 2024

1) Michael Pittman - WR 19 - Indianapolis Colts - ADP: 34

I might have a problem, but I can’t seem to stop drafting Michael Pittman with his current ADP. I have him at number 14 on my big board right now as my WR9, right behind Puka, so picking him up at the end of the 3rd round just feels like downright stealing to me.

At 26 years old, Pittman is coming off a highly productive campaign where he racked up 156 targets, 109 receptions, 1,152 yards, and 4 touchdowns and finished as WR13. Despite these impressive numbers, he seems to be flying under the radar in many drafts, which I would assume is mostly due to uncertainty over Anthony Richardson’s abilities as a passer (I’ll come back to this in a moment).

What I keep coming back to is that Pittman is your prototypical alpha WR1 and he is a target and volume monster, especially in full PPR formats. He didn’t score that many TDs last year, but whenever it comes to predicting repeatable success in terms of fantasy output, I’ll always defer to volume over the number of touchdowns scored, given the ladder can vary greatly year over year.

Now to address the argument about his QB situation: I don’t think we saw enough of a sample size from Richardson to deem him as a bad or good passer of the football at the NFL level, but, despite some solid performances last year, it would be disingenuous to say he’s downgrade from Gardner Minshew.

The passing volume might come down a little bit, but I’m willing to bet that the Colts and Richardson have it in their vested interest to keep Richardson healthy and on the field. To do so, I’d think that means less designed runs for Richardson and developing more as a passer.

So if Pittman is able to maintain 90% of his volume and get those TD numbers to the 8+ range (16 receivers hit this mark last year, and another 10 hit 7 total), I think we’re looking at a true league winner here.

2) Josh Jacobs - RB 10 - Green Bay Packers - ADP: 26

The Packers offense has been one of the story lines I’ve heard on repeat going into the 2024 season. Will Reed be the WR1? Can Watson stay healthy? Will Dontayvion Wicks rise into stardom? Will Kraft or Musgrave be the number one TE?

With how much noise has been flying around about who is going to be catching the most balls in Green Bay, it almost feels as if people have forgotten that Josh Jacobs signed a 4-year, $48 million deal with the Packers this offseason and that Jacobs was the number 3 running back in fantasy just two season ago - and he’s still only 26!

Yes, the contract is structured in a way where it’s basically a one-year deal, but as far as RB money goes, I’d assume Green Bay is planning on giving Jacobs a heavy workload in 2024 in what should be one of the league’s better offenses.

If that assumption is at all correct, given how much of an upgrade Green Bay is to Las Vegas, how well Aaron Jones played down the stretch in this offense last year, and with how productive a fully-healthy Jacobs can be, I think there’s a plausible path for Jacobs to finish as a top 5 RB this year.

If you can get Jacobs for an early-to-mid third round pick, I think that’s an absolute steal.

3) Jonathan Brooks - RB 30 - Carolina Panthers - ADP: 95

This year’s rookie class for RBs has been relatively disappointing from the start.

It was never a particularly deep class, but there was some excitement around Brooks and Benson, especially if either could manage to end up with Dallas or the Chargers.

Unfortunately, that didn’t quite work out as planned. Dallas opted to not draft any RBs and instead brought back Ezekiel Elliot, and the Chargers took a 6th round flier on Kimani Vidal to add to their less-than-inspiring backfield of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins.

So why do I mention any of this? Well, other than the fact that I’m also a dynasty nerd, it looks like the collective fantasy football community agreed and has let Jonathan Brooks slide into the 7th and 8th rounds of fantasy drafts, but I think that may be a bit too far.

Brooks may not storm out of the gates this year since he’s still getting back to full health after tearing his ACL last year, but with his athletic profile and second round draft capital, I’d expect him to have fully won over the starting job from Chuba Hubbard by the midway point this season.

In the range he’s going in, your other options are risky receivers like Christian Watson, Keon Coleman, and Jameson Williams or the higher end of RB handcuffs like Jaylen Warren.

Given the players with a similar ADP, I’m happy to take my chance on a rookie with a a great opportunity to be a workhorse RB for the back half of the season and fantasy playoffs.

4) Jayden Daniels - QB 15 - Washington Commanders - ADP: 118

With all the hype this year around fellow rookie Caleb Williams and some of the second year QBs like Stroud and Richardson, it looks like Jayden Daniels may have slid under the radar just enough to be one of the best value picks of 2024 drafts.

When it comes to standard fantasy football formats, it’s no secret that rushing QBs are essentially fantasy cheat codes, and Daniels is one of the best rushing QB prospects we’ve seen in the past few years.

In his last year at LSU, Daniels rushed for a whopping 1134 yards and 10 TDs, while also managing an impressive 3812 yards through the air, 40 TDs and only 4 interceptions, showing that he’s anything but a one-trick pony.

Caleb Williams, Tua, Goff and Purdy are all going almost a full round or two before Daniels right now, which I think is incredible value for the Washington QB. I’m even tempted to say I’d take Daniels straight up over the 4 QBs I listed due to his rushing upside alone.

If I miss out on one of the elite QBs in fantasy drafts, I’m pretty happy if I walk away with a combo of Daniels and a veteran like Stafford or Cousins.

5) Pat Freiermuth - TE 16 - Pittsburgh Steelers - ADP: 126

Drafting Tight Ends gets pretty ugly pretty quickly in fantasy football. Outside of some of the usual suspects, I can’t say there are any Tight Ends that I am super confident about when I click that draft button, especially as we get into the deeper rounds of the draft.

While I’m sure there are some Kyle Pitts owners out there that are traumatized by the name Arthur Smith, I happen to think the arrival of Smith in Pittsburgh is a good thing for Pat Freiermuth. While Smith was with the Falcons, nearly a third of all passes went to Tight Ends. Granted, the QB play was atrocious and the TE that got the most looks there was Jonnu Smith.

That said, the Steelers are in a place where the QB situation isn’t great but better (I’m taking Russ over Ridder 100 out of 100 times) and the only real proven receiving weapon on the team is George Pickens.

Freiermuth has had an up-and-down career with injuries so far, but he’s a talented pass-catcher and I think he’ll see a ton of work over the middle of the field and in the redzone in Arthur Smith’s offense.

So long as he can stay healthy, I think Freiermuth has a good shot to get back into the Top 10 TEs this year.

BONUS: Isiah Pacheco - RB 12 - Kansas City Chiefs - ADP: 37

I’m listing Pacheco here as a bonus because I think his current ADP is fair and I’m not exactly reaching for him, but I love him in this range.

With McKinnon gone and Pacheco proving that he can be a weapon in the passing down the stretch last season, I think the Chiefs bulldozer of a RB could be in for a hell of a season.

With all the mock drafts and Underdog drafts I’ve done this offseason, I’m happiest with my team when I go receivers first 2-3 rounds and can get Pacheco as my first RB off the board.

I suspect by the time the season comes around that his ADP may move up a bit, but for now I think he’s a great value find.

5 Fantasy Football Players to Avoid at their Current ADP for 2024

Before you all get your pitchforks out, let's clear something up: I'm not saying the players on the list below are bad at football or lack value. In fact, they're all incredibly talented and will have their moments this season. However, at their current ADP, I wouldn't want to take them there. So, take a deep breath, lower those torches, and let's dive into why these popular picks might not be the best investments at their draft positions.

1) Jonathan Taylor - RB 5 - Indianapolis Colts - ADP: 13

Jonathan Taylor is an incredibly gifted running back and a great fantasy asset when he’s healthy, but if he’s going at the end of the first round or the start of the second, then I’m completely out on him.

I think Richardson could vulture away some redzone work, which is where most of Taylor’s fantasy production came from last season, and I just don’t think Taylor is involved enough in the passing game to justify going this high in drafts.

I think Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams provide better value in the mid-to-late second, and I think taking a shot on one of the young, rising WRs here and waiting to snag RB in the 3rd or 4th provides better value here.

In non-PPR formats, I think Taylor is much more valuable, so this more comes down to my personal strategy in PPR or .5 PPR leagues where I’ve found receiver value plummets after the first 3.5 rounds and RB value holds pretty strong from rounds 3-8.

2) Davante Adams - WR 10 - Las Vegas Raiders - ADP: 17

Here is the full list of receivers that had a top 10 fantasy season when they were 31-years-old or older over the past 10 years:

• Keenan Allen - 2023 - QB was Justin Herbert

• Larry Fitzgerald - 2017 - QB was Carson Palmer (Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton for half the Season)

• Jordy Nelson - 2016 - QB was Aaron Rogers

• Brandon Marshall - 2015 - QB was Jay Cutler

That’s the full list. Adams is obviously one of the top receivers in the league, but father time comes for everyone eventually and I don’t think Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell will help Adams overcome the not-so-great odds of him finishing as a Top 10 WR this year going into his 31-year-old season.

Last year we saw the regression begin for Adams as his yardage, YPC and TD totals all dropped significantly. It wouldn’t be fair of me to say that was Adams’ fault, but I just can’t see that improving much this season and I think the arrival of Brock Bowers might mean a lower target share as well.

If Adams was on a different team, I might feel differently, but this year I have him as my WR 15 so I’ll be passing on him this year given his Top 10 WR price tag.

3) Jalen Hurts - QB 2 - Philadelphia Eagles - ADP: 33

I’ll preface this by saying I’m a life-long Eagles fan and I hope I’m wrong on this, but I’m not convinced at all that Jalen Hurts is a top 10 QB in this league.

Don’t get me wrong, his rushing upside most likely keeps him firmly in the top 5 or 6 in terms of fantasy production this year, but I think we’re going to see the regression for Hurts continue.

When we combine the addition of Saquon Barkley in the backfield and the loss of Jason Kelce at center, I think we will see less tush pushes into the end zone for Hurts and more between the tackle rushes by Barkley.

I have both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes ahead of Hurts this year, so with the two of them going nearly 6-8 picks after Hurts, I’m passing on the Philly QB every time at his current ADP.

Go Birds?

4) Tank Dell - WR 25 - Houston Texans - ADP: 50

Predicting how Houston’s wide receiver room may shake out by the end of the season may prove to be one of the single biggest differentiators for fantasy managers this year.

I typically believe pretty strongly on betting on talented year 2 receivers who produced their rookie years, but I just can’t see Dell outperforming Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs this upcoming season.

That’s really what it comes down to for me. I don’t think the Texans can support 3 top 25 receivers this year, and Dell is my bet for who will receive the short end of the stick.

It’s not the player, it’s just the situation. But hey, that’s fantasy.

5) David Montgomery - RB 20 - Detroit Lions - ADP: 66

Similar to Tank Dell, I think Montgomery is a talented player who can make a huge difference in real life games, but I don’t think his role justifies his current ADP.

As the season went on, it became pretty clear that this is Gibbs’ backfield. Monty very well might be the best number 2 back in the league, but as Gibbs became more involved in the red zone offense as the season went on, Montgomery’s fantasy value started to decline.

If Monty was being taken a round or two later, he may have even made the other side of this list.

However, Rhamondre Stevenson is currently going 5 picks behind him, and I’d rather take Stevenson straight up. I also think there’s much better value nearly 20-30 picks later when we start seeing guys like Najee Harris, Zach Moss, Zamir White and Jonathan Brooks go off the board.

Monty is a great real-life RB, but there are just other picks later on in the draft that have a much better chance on being the RB1 in their own offense and I’d rather bet on one of them being a top 20 fantasy running back this year.

And that’s my list! Thank you for reading!

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